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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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