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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 June 24
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Friday, 14 June 24
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Friday, 14 June 24
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Thursday, 13 June 24
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The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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