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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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