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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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