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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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