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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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