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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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