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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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