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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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