We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
|
|
|
Showing 96 to 100 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
