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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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