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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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