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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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