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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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