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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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