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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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