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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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