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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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