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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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