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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
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