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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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