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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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Showing 71 to 75 news of total 6871 |
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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