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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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Showing 56 to 60 news of total 6871 |
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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