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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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Showing 61 to 65 news of total 6871 |
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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