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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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