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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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