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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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