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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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