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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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