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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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