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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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