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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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