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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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