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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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