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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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