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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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