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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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