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Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in many key growing areas, raising concerns regarding global food security, amid rallying food inflation.
In the US, recently released estimates from Pro Farmer, regarding corn and soybean crops, are 4% lower than the official government forecasts, which is dismaying. Bolstering heat and drought have severely impacted part of the Farm Belt over the previous months. Production output is crucial, as it will determine grain prices for the upcoming months. According to USDA’s latest report, in total, 89.8 million acres were planted to corn in 2022, while 87.2 million acres were planted to soybean. Overall, corn production is decreased by 5% y-o-y, while soybean harvest is forecasted to increase by 2% y-o-y.
In China, the worst drought since the early 1960s in central and southwestern areas paired with floods in the northeast threaten hundreds of million tons of grain harvest that is reaped during the fall. Rice harvests in areas along the Yangtze River and the Sichuan basin, the two regions where half of the country’s rice is produced, have been severely impacted. Total corn output is also estimated to be reduced by 4.5mn tons due to floods, according to Chinese commodities broker Yongan Futures Co. A loss of harvest will lead to increased demand for imports and will push prices upwards, posing threat to global food security. The country is now turning to the US for imports amid surging Brazil soybean prices, with a total of 859,836 tons being imported to the country since April 22, according to USDA.
India’s rice harvest is expected to significantly drop as of shrunk planted region due to extremely high temperatures. According to the country’s Food Corporation, rice harvest is expected to drop by 10% in the upcoming harvest season, typically occurring between November-December, decreasing the country’s rice output to 117mn metric tons. According to USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, 110 million tons out of the total 117 million tons, will be domestically consumed, thus leaving a total of 7 million tons for exports. August wheat stocks also slumped to a 14-year record low, while wheat inflation hit 12%. The country is discussing a potential curb on broken rice exports, which if decided will have ripple effects on the global food supply chain, while on Aug.27 it announced a ban on wheat flour exports with occasional exceptions.
Ukraine’s grain is leaving its ports smoothly with exports steadily ramping up. Ukraine’s grain exports are currently 50% lower y-o-y. Ukrainian wheat sales, albeit improved, are not adequate to support wheat prices, which stand currently below growing costs. On Aug.30, the country's Ministry of Infrastructures announced that approx. 1.5mn tons of grains have been exported so far from the country’s ports. However, next season’s harvest, which has already started to be sown, is undermined by destroyed farmlands and weak domestic prices.
Meanwhile, in the rest EU area, farmers have been grappling with drought, while estimating their summer crop yields to drop significantly. EU’s corn crop is estimated to hit a 15-year low, estimated at 59.3mn tons in 2022/2023 harvest, according to the European Commission’ latest forecast. According to FranceAgriMer, only 53% of the country’s corn crop is in good or very good condition, while according to Agritel’s latest estimate, the country’s 2022/2023 wheat production will reach 33.63mn tons, slumping below the 5-year average. Meanwhile, in Romania farmers have been forced to harvest their corn crops one month earlier on the back of extremely dry conditions. The country expects a 15% lower wheat output y-o-y, approx. 9mn tons, according to the Minister of Agriculture.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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