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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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