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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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