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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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