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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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