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Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal companies have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change, with eight companies reporting high realized coal prices, net profits and operating cash flows for 2021 and 1Q22.
These coal companies are not expanding coal capacity, with one or two exceptions, capital expenditure (capex) is mainly for maintenance and there are moves towards non-coal projects. The major exception is the dimethyl ether (DME) project announced by state-owned coal miner PTBA (Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam), but the projects face uncertain financial returns and funding as IEEFA reported in 2020.
In this report, IEEFA highlights that coal prices will likely stay elevated given conflict-induced changes to trade flows. Due to disruptions in shipping schedules, Korea and Japan are likely to buy less Russian coal and substitute with coal from Indonesia and Australia, hence coal prices are likely to stay high.
In the longer term, the new trade flows will likely require time to adjust even following conflict resolution. Therefore, coal prices will be supported during this adjustment process.
Moreover, even if China ends its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal, it is unlikely to help ease supply pressure. This is because there are already existing buyers for Australian coal since the ban was implemented. Its higher prices could make it likely to be priced out of the Chinese market.
IEEFA’s deep dive into the Indonesian coal sector finds that the eight companies are not reinvesting into new coal capacity. However, two have plans to acquire a new mine (ABM Investama) or build up downstream capacity (PTBA), while taking the opportunity to repay debt.
While this is not surprising, considering the 185 global financial institutions which have clearly stated that they will no longer support coal or coal power plant financing, a lack of new coal supply may mean coal prices continue to stay elevated, putting the onus of energy transition on potential buyers.
In the event that there is conflict resolution, coupled with the EU’s commitment to decarbonize, coal prices are likely to normalize from current levels longer term. Coal companies should not miss the opportunity now to diversify away from coal before the cost to transition gets higher.
- Ghee Peh -
Ghee Peh
Ghee Peh is an energy finance analyst with a focus on the Asian coal industry and South East Asia. Ghee has worked on major mining IPOs in Hong Kong and Indonesia including coal, copper and gold companies and has a deep interest in commodity markets.
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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