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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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