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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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