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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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