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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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