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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
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