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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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