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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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