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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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