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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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