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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
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Thursday, 19 March 20
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In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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