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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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