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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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