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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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